War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".